Dear Investor, this week, we examine both the technical conditions needed for a true "alt season" and the fascinating competitive dynamics unfolding in Solana's memecoin market. While Ethereum's price surge following its Pectra upgrade has sparked excitement about a broader altcoin rally, we look beyond simple price movements to analyze what the ETH/BTC ratio truly signals about market cycles. Meanwhile, on Solana, the strategic battle between launchpad platforms reveals a more nuanced reality than typical "coopetition" narratives suggest, with Raydium's LetsBonk partnership gaining market share in what appears to be a potentially contracting memecoin market.
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Crypto Current #80

This week, we examine both the technical conditions needed for a true "alt season" and the fascinating competitive dynamics unfolding in Solana's memecoin market. While Ethereum's price surge following its Pectra upgrade has sparked excitement about a broader altcoin rally, we look beyond simple price movements to analyze what the ETH/BTC ratio truly signals about market cycles. Meanwhile, on Solana, the strategic battle between launchpad platforms reveals a more nuanced reality than typical "coopetition" narratives suggest, with Raydium's LetsBonk partnership gaining market share in what appears to be a potentially contracting memecoin market.


The crypto market showed continued momentum with Bitcoin maintaining $100k, adding 7% over the past week. However, Ethereum emerged as the standout performer, skyrocketing 40% over the past week following the successful implementation of its Pectra upgrade. This dramatic ETH recovery from April lows has pushed the total crypto market capitalization past $3.2 trillion, a move accelerated by short covering combined with some liquidations as Bitcoin's market dominance decreased by 3% to 63.5%. 

NEWSLETTER TABLE TEMPLATE (Final UTC 1130pm)

What's happening in crypto?

  • Coinbase soars 16% on S&P500 inclusion
  • BlackRock and Apollo lead nine firms in SEC panel on tokenisation
  • Anchorage to buy first OCC regulated bank to have a stablecoin
  • Meta in talks to deploy stablecoin (for a second time)
  • Saylor announces latest round of BTC buying 

Chart of the week

ETH/BTC ratio - One swallow does not a summer make. ETH / BTC +35% in the last 7 days, but it is too early to know if this breaks the previous trend, or simply a shorter-term move.

ETH BTC

Source: Tradingview

Beyond the "alt season" hype: What the ETH/BTC ratio really tells us

The phrase "alt season" often generates excitement among crypto investors, but understanding the genuine indicators of this market phase requires more nuance than mere price action suggests. While Ethereum's spectacular ~40% weekly gain has sparked discussions about an imminent altcoin boom, seasoned market analysis calls for a more measured interpretation.

 

For a true alt season to emerge, we've historically needed three specific conditions to align:

 

1. Bitcoin above psychological thresholds: With BTC now comfortably above $100,000, this first condition has been met, freeing investors psychologically to look beyond the market leader.

 

2. ETH/BTC ratio strength: Despite the recent spike to 0.025, this ratio remains well below previous alt season peaks of 0.06-0.08 and feels like a bounce off the bottom.

 

3. Expansionary liquidity conditions: The current environment of tariff walk-backs is not the same thing as loosening monetary policy that has stoked previous alt seasons.

US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Source: JPM Asset Management

4. New marginal buyers: Ultimately, the crypto market needs to see a new wave of marginal buyers. Just as BTC has seen a significant wave of corporate buyers, for any rally to endure, we need to see a new marginal buyer emerge.

Bitcoin ownership

Source: River

What makes this potential alt cycle different is market maturity. Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail speculation, institutional involvement has introduced new dynamics. Institutional capital tends to follow more structured allocation frameworks, often limiting exposure to smaller, unproven assets regardless of market momentum.

 

Rather than passively waiting for alt season to materialize, active managers like DACM evaluate specific catalysts that drive value in individual projects. When technological advancements coincide with favorable market conditions, targeted opportunities emerge that transcend simplistic "alt season" narratives. We have been selectively investing in these opportunities, applying our rigorous assessment framework to identify genuine value creation beyond market momentum.

 

The Raydium vs. Pump.fun battle: Competition in Solana's memecoin market

An intriguing ecosystem battle continues to unfold on Solana that illustrates the complex dynamics of competition within blockchain platforms. The rivalry between Raydium and Pump.fun demonstrates how platform wars in cryptocurrency markets can create both opportunities and challenges for the broader ecosystem.

memecoin wars-1

Source: Dune

The conflict began when Pump.fun, Solana's popular memecoin launchpad, announced plans to move off Raydium and create its own DEX. Rather than accepting this customer loss, Raydium responded by launching LaunchLabs, directly competing with Pump.fun's core business. What followed was a period of rapid innovation as both platforms implemented new features to attract users.

 

The competitive tension reached new heights on May 14 when both platforms simultaneously launched versions of the same memecoin - Glonk - with platform founders actively promoting their respective versions on social media. This head-to-head "battle for traffic" became a clear test of platform strength, with the LetsBonk version of Glonk achieving a significantly higher market value of $18 million (later settling at $3.7 million) and $86.3 million in trading volume, while the Pump.fun version fell from $15 million to around $1.5 million with lower volume of $55.7 million.

Glonk

Source: DEX Screener

Perhaps the most significant development in this competition has been the emergence of LetsBonk, a collaborative platform between Raydium and Bonk. Bonk, which began as a simple memecoin in late 2023, evolved from a viral sensation to a cryptocurrency with real utility through strong community engagement. By partnering with Raydium to create LetsBonk, Bonk has further cemented its legitimacy in the Solana ecosystem. This strategic alliance has proven particularly effective, with data suggesting that Raydium is successfully reclaiming market share from Pump.fun through this partnership.

Solana transaction activity

Source: Blockworks Research

Both platforms have introduced innovations, but Pump.fun appears to be feeling the pressure. While they've adopted a 50% revenue sharing model with creators, this comes as an additional fee on top of their existing fee structure rather than a true sharing of revenue. This competitive landscape unfolds against a backdrop of declining memecoin activity since January 2025, though the recent surge in daily token deployments has helped transaction activity on Solana rebound to a three-month high.

 

Unlike the optimistic "coopetition" narrative that often surrounds blockchain ecosystem rivalry, the reality appears more nuanced. While competition has driven short-term innovation, the overall memecoin market seems to be evolving, raising questions about whether these platform wars will ultimately expand the market or simply redistribute existing demand.

 

This evolving situation underscores the importance of distinguishing between short-term market share shifts and genuine value creation. In the case of Raydium and Pump.fun, recent growth in LetsBonk suggests that Raydium may be strengthening its position, but the larger war for sustained memecoin growth remains less certain.

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About_DACM

Established in 2017, DACM is an institutional investor focused on the digital asset sector. Our team invest across the digital asset sector, from early-stage venture partnerships to listed and derivative markets. DACM has developed a fundamental investment philosophy designed for family office and institutional investors, tested across multiple market cycles.

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